ABSTRACT
BackgroundDevelopment of strategies for mitigating the severity of COVID-19 is now a top global public health priority. We sought to assess strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 outbreak in a hospital setting via the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, self-isolation, tracing and quarantine, wearing facial masks/ personal protective equipment. MethodsWe developed an individual-based model for COVID-19 transmission among healthcare workers in a hospital setting. We calibrated the model using data of a COVID-19 outbreak in a hospital unit in Wuhan in a Bayesian framework. The calibrated model was used to simulate different intervention scenarios and estimate the impact of different interventions on outbreak size and workday loss. ResultsWe estimated that work-related stress increases susceptibility to COVID-19 infection among healthcare workers by 52% (90% Credible Interval (CrI): 16.4% - 93.0%). The use of high efficacy facial masks was shown to be able to reduce infection cases and workday loss by 80% (90% CrI: 73.1% - 85.7%) and 87% (CrI: 80.0% - 92.5%), respectively. The use of social distancing alone, through reduced contacts between healthcare workers, had a marginal impact on the outbreak. A strict quarantine policy with the isolation of symptomatic cases and a high fraction of pre-symptomatic/ asymptomatic cases (via contact tracing or high test rate), could only prolong outbreak duration with minimal impact on the outbreak size. Our results indicated that a quarantine policy should be coupled with other interventions to achieve its effect. The effectiveness of all these interventions was shown to increase with their early implementation. ConclusionsOur analysis shows that a COVID-19 outbreak in a hospitals non-COVID-19 unit can be controlled or mitigated by the use of existing non-pharmaceutical measures.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected a large number of healthcare workers in Hubei province, China. In addition to infectious and respiratory disease physicians, many doctors in other medical fields have been infected. Methods We prospectively collected epidemiological data on medical staff members who are working in neurosurgery departments in 107 hospitals in Hubei province through self-reported questionnaires or telephone interviews. Data of medical staff members with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were analysed. The final follow-up date was 1 March 2020. Findings A total of 5,442 neurosurgery department medical staff members were surveyed. One hundred and twenty cases, involving 54 doctors and 66 nurses, were found to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. The overall incidence was 2.2%. These cases were concentrated in 26 centres, 16 of which had admitted a total of 59 patients with COVID-19 complicated by craniocerebral disease. Medical staff members in centres receiving COVID-19 patients had a higher risk of contracting infection than those in centres not receiving COVID-19 patients (relative risk: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 12.6-30.6). Contact with either COVID-19 patients (62.5%, 75/120) or infected colleagues (30.8%, 37/120) was the most common mode of transmission. About 78.3% (94/120) of the infected cases wore surgical masks, whereas 20.8% (25/120) failed to use protection when exposed to the source of infection. Severe infections were observed in 11.7% (14/120) of the cases, with one death (0.8%, 1/120). All the infected medical staff members had been discharged from the hospital. A total of 1,287 medical staff members were dispatched to participate in the frontline response to COVID-19 under level 2 protection of whom one was infected. Medical staff members who took inadequate protection had a higher risk of contracting infection than those using level 2 protection (relative risk: 36.9; 95% confidence interval: 5.2-263.6). Interpretation Neurosurgical staff members in Hubei province were seriously affected by COVID-19. Level 2 protection and strengthening of protective measures are likely to be effective in preventing medical workers from being infected.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Respiratory Tract Diseases , Craniocerebral TraumaABSTRACT
Background There had been a preliminary occurrence of human-to-human transmissions between healthcare workers (HCWs), but risk factors in the susceptibility for COVID-19, and infection patterns among HCWs have largely remained unknown. Methods Retrospective data collection on demographics, lifestyles, contact status with infected subjects for 118 HCWs (include 12 COVID-19 HCWs) from a single-center. Sleep quality and working pressure were evaluated by Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and The Nurse Stress Index (NSI), respectively. Follow-up duration was from Dec 25, 2019, to Feb 15, 2020. Risk factors and transmission models of COVID-19 among HCWs were analyzed and constructed. Findings A high proportion of COVID-19 HCWs had engaged in night shift-work (75.0% vs. 40.6%) and felt they were working under pressure (66.7% vs. 32.1%) than uninfected HCWs. COVID-19 HCWs had higher total scores of PSQI and NSI than uninfected HCWs. Furthermore, these scores were both positively associated with COVID-19 risk. An individual-based model (IBM) estimated the outbreak duration among HCWs in a non-typical COVID-19 ward at 62-80 days and the basic reproduction number =1.27 [1.06, 1.61]. By reducing the average contact rate per HCW by a 1.35 factor and susceptibility by a 1.40 factor, we can avoid an outbreak of the basic case among HCWs. Interpretation Poor sleep quality and high working pressure were positively associated with high risks of COVID-19. A novel IBM of COVID-19 transmission is suitable for simulating different outbreak patterns in a hospital setting.